Is China's population shrinking.

 For the first time in six decades, China's population is shrinking and it is predicted it could create a demographic crisis. That's because China's population isn't just shrinking, it's also aging. The more concerning problem is that majority of Chinese couples are not considering having more than one child. Last week, officials announced that 2022 marked the first drop in total population, since the famine of the Great Leap Forward. China's demographic trajectory is far from usual. It is following in the path set by the rest of East Asia. China is predicted to lose nearly 50% of its population by 2100. This

 population decline can be traced back to the restrictive family-planning policies launched in the 1970 and an impressive economic boom fueled by China's huge labor force. China's modernization brought rapid urbanization rising income levels, and better education to large parts of the country. Combined, these policies and growth gave China one of the lowest birthrates in the world. Today, China is trying to reverse its population decline. Not just because an aging population is hard to sustain economically, but because China's impressive economic growth, until now, has relied on its people. As China's population challenges deepen over time, it might have to rethink how to grow its economy and care for its citizens.

Here are the key facts about China's population and its projected changes in the coming decades, based on  on data from UN and other sources:

1. Although China will lose its title as the world's most populous country, the UN estimates its population at 1.426 billion in 2022. This is larger than the entire population of Europe (744 million) and the Americans (1.04 billion). It's also roughly equivalent to the population of all the nations on Africa (1.427 billion).

2. The UN forecasts that China's population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100. That's according to the UN's "medium variant," or middle-of-the-road projection. The large population decline is projected even though it assumes that China's total fertility rate will rise from 1.18 children per women in 2022 to 1.48 in 2100. 

3. China's 2022 total fertility rate is estimated to be 1.18 children per women- down substantially from earlier decades and significant below the "replacement rate" of 2.2 children per women. This is despite the relaxation of the country's well-known one-child policy, which was introduced in 1980 but amended

 to allow two children beginning in 2016 and three children in 2021. The YuWa population Research Institute, a Beijing based think tank, has concluded that China is among the most expensive places to raise a child and that these economic concerns- rather than governmental policies - and tied to women not wanting to have more children these days.

4.In addition to having children fewer overall, women in China are choosing to have children later in life. Since 2000, the mean childbearing age in China has increased by three years, rising from 26 to 29. By comparison, the mean childbearing age has gone up by just one year across all middle-income countries. The mean age of first marriage has increased alongside the childbearing age in China. Based on data from China's 2020 census, the mean age of first marriage for women in 2020 was 28, up from 24 in 2010. Some have cited China's zero covid policy as a contributing factor to delayed motherhood.

5. China is among the countries with the most skewed sex ratio at birth, according to a recent Pew Research Center study of UN data. In fact, China accounted for 51% of the world's "missing" females

 between 1970 and 2020, due to sex-selective abortion or neglect, according to a 2020 UN report. 

6. China has a rapidly aging population. according to Chinese state media, China is already approaching a "moderately aging " scenario, in which 20% of its population is ages 60 and older. By 2035, that

 percentage is expected to rise to 30%, or more than 400 million people. 

How does this affect China? 

Due to Covid related lockdowns and real estate market slump, China's economy grew by only 3% in 2022, the worst rate in nearly 50 years. Many believe the country's low fertility rates and aging workforce may further threaten future economic growth- especially as state treasuries may struggle doling out pensions for the elderly. With an economy shored up by low-cost labor, a decline in the workforce may slow down China's economy, Yi Fuxian, who studies Chinese demographics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Moreover, the demographic retreat of China decoded by Barclay Bram of the Asia Society Policy Institute states that there is a marked behavioural shift among the Chinese young population in the fertile age group. "Young Chinese are marrying later, having fewer children, or foregoing having children altogether", with the number of couples who married in China dropping from 13.46 million to 8.46 million in the period from 2013 to 2020.