The Tigray Conflict Explained.

 Brief History of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is located in Africa and its capital Addis Ababa. It is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa. It shares its borders with Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan and South Sudan. It is the 13th most-populous country in the world and 2nd most-populous in

Africa after Nigeria. Ethiopia is a mosaic of a large diversity of people and languages with more than 80 ethnic groups, composed of historically very different territories. The origin of Ethiopia goes back to the kingdom of Aksum which emerged in the 1st century in the highlands region, whose kings adopted Christianity in the 4th century, which was the origin of the Tewahedo Orthodox Church gathering today almost half of the Ethiopians. The highlands region, which covers only a third of Ethiopia's present-day Ethiopia comprises peripheral regions that only became part of the Ethiopian state in the late 19th century, previously composed of several States and multitude of non-state societies with strong tradition of self-governance.

Background

In the past, Ethiopia has been a federation of kingdoms under the sovereignty of an emperor called the "King of Kings". That was the case until the 19th century, when Addis Ababa become the capital and the emperor Menelik II(ruled from 1889 to 1913), who imposed the centralism under the predominance of the Amharic culture and language. It broke the long tradition of federal governance of kingdoms and autonomous communities. This same type of governance continued under emperor Haile Selassie who ruled from 1930 to 1974 and the military communist dictatorship of Colonel

Mengistu regime from 1974 to 1991. Then in 1991 the Mengistu regime was overthrown, and a new government was established which is composed of an alliance of several ethnic political parties but mainly dominated by Tigrayans of the TPLF(Tigray People's Liberation Front). The new government decentralized the country by establishing the historical tradition of Federalism. The TPLF, who

played a leading role in overthrowing the dictatorship, they dominated the political life but over the past decades had also transferred positions to other ethnic groups, example after the death of Tigrayan Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Haile Mariam Desalegn, who is from the Wolaytta ethnic group became Prime Minister in 2012. In 2018, when faced with protests by the Amhara and Omoro ethnic group which constitutes of 34.5% and 26.9% respectively of the population (based on the 2007 census), Prime Minister Desalegn resigned and the parliament elected Abiy Ahmed of Amhara origin on his mother's side and Omoro on his father's side, as a way out of the crisis. Abiy Ahmed said he wanted to unify Ethiopians by running the country in a centralized manner in order to eliminate inter-ethnic tensions. He also changed previous economic policy on state intervention. He also signed a peace and cooperation agreement with neighboring Eritrea, which gave back territories of North Tigray to Eritrea. This led to escalating tensions with the TPLF and also

TPLF leaders were being targeting on corruption charges, the government coalition was also renamed "Prosperity Party". The postponement of the 2020 national elections due to covid crisis, which was contested by the Tigrayan leaders who saw it as a maneuver by Abiy Ahmed to stay in power, and the holding of elections in the Tigray region state against the Central government. All these escalations lead to the complete breakdown in relations between Addis Ababa and the Tigray leaders. This conflict has much deeper origin than the sequence of events in the 2018. It is an ideological confrontation over how Ethiopia should define itself, two approaches have been provided which are in competition for more than a century. The first approach is that there should be a federal approach in which there would be large degree of autonomy to different peoples and communities and that they manages these different autonomous units as the country has a multi-ethnic tradition and history. This approach is supported by the TPLF, even though is leaders probably did not give enough room for the other ethnic political party when they at the governing coalition. The other approach, which is implemented by Abiy Ahmed is as a unified state around a central government based in the capital which offers a solution to eliminate inter-ethnic conflicts, it is based on an imaginary ideal of a unified historical Ethiopia. 

The Conflict

Due to the growing tensions between Abiy Ahmed and TPLF an armed conflict begin in early November. According to some sources, the Amhara armed forces had been preparing to intervene militarily in Western Tigray since 2018. According to International Crisis Group(ICG), the TDF(Tigray Defense Forces) have a large military force which is estimated to be around 250,000 men. This number is combined from many sources 1)The TDF itself, which is a regional state's army and it is commanded by Gen Tsadqan Gebretensae, who is a military strategist, he also led the fight against colonel Mengistu 2) Well-trained village militias 3) the regional police of Tigray has also joined the TDF. The TPLF has also significant support from the six million Tigrayans as the TPLF has implemented many development programs in the past 30 years and has also defended the interests of the Tigrayans. The TPLF is not just a political party, but an organizations which is deeply rooted in the people of Tigray. On the other hand the Federal army of Ethiopia is much weaker compared to the Tigrayan army the other reason might be that the Tigrayan army has also fought with the dictator Mengistu and also fought a war with Eritrea in 1998-2000, that is why the Amhara armed forces and the Eritrea army has to join the fight against Tigrayan army. On top of that many Tigrayans soldiers left the federal ENDF(Ethiopian National Defense Forces) at the beginning of the conflict. At the beginning of the conflict both government of Ethiopia and Eritrea denied that EDF(Eritrean defense forces) had entered Tigray but later on April 17,2021, the president finally

acknowledged the presence of Eritrean troops and also announced that they would soon be withdrawn. On November 3, 2020, Gen Gebremichael attacked several military bases of ENDF, he said that it was a preemptive operation as the federal troops are regrouping in Tigray's southern border and the central government have plan to launch a military operation to arrest Tigray's leaders. In response of the attack on the federal base Abiy Ahmed declared a six-month emergency in Tigray on November 4 and a military operation was

 launched on November 12, 2020. The western area of Tigray is claimed to be seized by the Ethiopian government. On November 23, the Ethiopian government announced that its forces controlled most of the Tigray regional state and were advancing towards the city Mekelle. On 28 November the federal army has taken control of Mekelle and the military confrontation was declared over by Abiy Ahmed. By looking at the conflict many experts think that the, TDF was losing control over the areas but the reality is quite different as the TDF still control large areas which are mountain areas that are hard to reach. On May 1, the Ethiopian  government classified the TPLF as a terrorist organization, this action points out the intention of the federal government that they do not seek a political solution of this crisis. On July 2021, the Tigrayan troops launched the "Alula" offensive. On June 22 the Tigrayan troops recaptured Addigrat as well as Mekelle on June 28. As the conflict continues Eritrea took advantage and annex areas of Northern Tigray particularly the Badme region and Northern Irob district.

Humanitarian Situation 

 Tigray has been under a de-facto blockade for the last 2 years with more than 20 million people in Ethiopia including 5.2 million in Tigray are in need of aid due to the conflict that started in 2020.

Ethiopia is the third largest refugee hosting country in Africa, it is home to over 924,000 refugees which are mainly from South Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea. Since the beginning of the conflict in November, 2020, approx 2 million people are internally displaced in Tigray, of which 63,000 have fled to Sudan. Before the conflict began, Tigray has four main refugee camps which housed around 100,000 when the conflict began the Eritrean television accused TPLF of executing civilians in these camps, but the New York Times reported that the Eritrean army attacked and looted the camps then carried out execution as punishment for leaving Eritrea. The conflict has returned Ethiopia to hell of the 1980 as it has ended the 30 year

 of progress that has been made in the region. Food insecurity is spreading as people are being displaced, it is spreading both in urban and rural areas. According to IPC(Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) in May-June 2021 atleast 4 million people face high level of acute food insecurity in the region of Tigray, more than 350,000 are in situation described as catastrophic due to food insecurity, malnutrition, diseases and famine. As the conflict coincided with the harvest season which resulted in loss of more than 90% of the crops in 2020. Only 16% of hospitals and health centers are fully functional and many people does not even have access to clean water. The isolating is making things worse as the aid agencies are facing difficulties in providing aid to the people.

Effects of Ukraine Conflict

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, the attention of the world is being shifted towards that. The little attention that the conflict at the beginning is being faded. The total casualties of the Tigray conflict is estimated around 600,000 or it could be more than that but the casualties of the Ukraine conflict is still far below that. But every person who dies it bad if it is anywhere in the world. But we should on both equally rather than giving one our full attention and the other none.